澳大利亞的首府城市或許正在降溫，但它們的大都市同胞們呢?
Geelong, Newcastle 和Launceston等二線城市的房價(jià)一直在上漲，證明在最近的大城市房價(jià)飆升后，購房者有了更實(shí)惠的選擇。但隨著一些首府房價(jià)的下跌，最明顯的是悉尼和墨爾本，一些二線城市的房價(jià)現(xiàn)在看起來不像一兩年前那么劃算了。
主要區(qū)域城市Newcastle,Wollongong, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Geelong 和Launceston的價(jià)格前景分析如下。
在大城市變得過于昂貴之后，二線城市蓬勃發(fā)展
當(dāng)房價(jià)對首次購房者和投資者來說變得過于昂貴時(shí)，有抱負(fù)的購房者往往會把附近的地區(qū)城市作為一個(gè)更便宜的選擇。這些次要城市通常離首都足夠近，人們可以通勤工作。
主要城市和二線城市的房價(jià)漲幅通常密切相關(guān)，但有時(shí)會延遲一年左右。對于一些城市來說，一些城市對中的主要城市可以引領(lǐng)次要城市價(jià)格增長的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。
悉尼人會考慮Newcastle,Wollongong，墨爾本人通常會考慮Geelong，塔斯馬尼亞第二大城市Launceston則被認(rèn)為是僅次于Hobart的城市。在昆士蘭，布里斯班典型的房子比黃金海岸和陽光海岸便宜，但是這些沿海城市都在到布里斯班的通勤距離之內(nèi)，顯然是昆士蘭的替代選擇。
2013年前后，悉尼和墨爾本的房價(jià)開始飆升，一、兩年之后， Wollongong,Newcastle 和 Geelong的房價(jià)開始上漲。Launceston的房價(jià)自2017年以來大幅上漲，而就在幾年前，霍巴特的房價(jià)在2015年開始飆升。雖然北部地區(qū)的房價(jià)增長較為緩慢，但陽光海岸和黃金海岸的房價(jià)漲幅超過了布里斯班。
二線城市的房價(jià)會怎樣?
一些指標(biāo)被用來預(yù)測未來幾年二線城市的房價(jià)增長。
第一種方法是比較首府房價(jià)中位數(shù)與二線城市房價(jià)中位數(shù)的比值。首府/二級城市的房價(jià)比越高，首都相對于二級城市的房價(jià)就越貴(例如，比值為2表示首府的典型住宅價(jià)格是二級城市的兩倍)。
如果首府城市/二級城市的價(jià)格比率低于平均水平，那么這可能表明二級城市被高估了，這意味著二級城市在不久的將來可能會看到更弱的價(jià)格增長(反之亦然)。
此外，還分析了買家對某一領(lǐng)域的興趣——利用域名網(wǎng)站和應(yīng)用程序每次列表瀏覽量的變化——這是未來價(jià)格增長的領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)。還考慮了二線城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景和就業(yè)前景，包括二線城市與最近的首都之間的相互聯(lián)系。
Sydney-Wollongong
盡管Wollongong臥龍崗的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)良好，但其價(jià)格在未來一年可能會停滯或下跌。主要原因是，悉尼/臥龍崗的房價(jià)比率僅略低于2010-2018年的平均水平，又回到了2003-2013年的水平。2003-2013年期間，悉尼房價(jià)中位價(jià)比臥龍崗高出約50%(見下圖)。這一房價(jià)比率的下降是由于悉尼的房價(jià)在過去兩年下跌了超過Wollongong的房價(jià)。
盡管未來一到兩年，臥龍崗的房價(jià)可能仍將相當(dāng)停滯，但就業(yè)市場的改善以及與悉尼的聯(lián)系日益密切，應(yīng)會在中期內(nèi)為臥龍崗的房價(jià)提供支撐。
過去幾年，臥龍崗的就業(yè)增長強(qiáng)勁，失業(yè)率從2016年的近7%降至2018年的4.5%。
Wollongong也是一個(gè)日益壯大的通勤城鎮(zhèn):2016年，超過2.1萬人從Wollongong通勤至悉尼上班(第二大區(qū)域城市至首都，僅次于黃金海岸至布里斯班)。Wollongong 和Illawarra 的居民還可以從BadgerysCreek機(jī)場的建設(shè)中受益，該機(jī)場距離Wollongong只有一個(gè)多小時(shí)的車程，不過預(yù)計(jì)要到2026年才能完工。
Sydney-Newcastle
Newcastle紐卡斯?fàn)柡芸赡茉谖磥硪粌赡昕吹絻r(jià)格增長疲軟或小幅下跌。由于過去一年紐卡斯?fàn)柗績r(jià)增長緩慢，悉尼/紐卡斯?fàn)柗績r(jià)比已低于2010-2018年的平均水平，但悉尼房價(jià)下跌了10%。這表明紐卡斯?fàn)柕姆績r(jià)與悉尼相比可能被高估了。
買家對紐卡斯?fàn)柕呐d趣似乎也在減弱。2018年，由于買家減少或他們開始尋找其他買家，紐卡斯?fàn)栍蛎膯喂P上市瀏覽量下降了2%。
紐卡斯?fàn)柗康禺a(chǎn)價(jià)格增長可能放緩的另一個(gè)原因是，該地區(qū)還沒有明顯的就業(yè)熱潮。過去兩年，紐卡斯?fàn)柕氖I(yè)率一直徘徊在6%左右，高于悉尼4%的失業(yè)率。
Melbourne-Geelong
墨爾本/吉隆房價(jià)比在2018年大幅下降，吉隆房價(jià)上漲，墨爾本房價(jià)下跌。墨爾本與吉隆的房價(jià)比率目前為1.5，這意味著墨爾本的一套普通住宅比吉隆的一套普通住宅貴50%。目前這一比例低于2010-2018年的平均水平。
隨著2019年墨爾本房價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)繼續(xù)下跌，吉隆的相對承受能力將進(jìn)一步下降，這也可能導(dǎo)致吉隆房價(jià)停滯或小幅下跌。吉隆市場已經(jīng)失去了增長勢頭，吉隆2018年的房價(jià)增速放緩，2018年底，域名對吉隆的單次上市訪問量下降。
雖然墨爾本/基吉隆房價(jià)比率的分析顯示吉隆房價(jià)可能會下跌，但吉隆的經(jīng)濟(jì)也出現(xiàn)了一些有希望的跡象。一些行業(yè)出現(xiàn)了就業(yè)增長，尤其是政府部門的就業(yè)，在2016年汽車制造業(yè)結(jié)束后，正在復(fù)蘇。吉隆的失業(yè)率自2016年以來一直徘徊在6%左右，但墨爾本4%的極低失業(yè)率(低于過去一年的6%)可能有助于降低吉隆的失業(yè)率。
基隆與墨爾本的聯(lián)系日益緊密，基隆地產(chǎn)市場與墨爾本市場的聯(lián)系將進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)。計(jì)劃或正在進(jìn)行的一些交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目，應(yīng)該會改善吉隆和墨爾本之間的交通時(shí)間，包括西門隧道項(xiàng)目和計(jì)劃改善吉龍-墨爾本鐵路服務(wù)。
這些項(xiàng)目——加上強(qiáng)勁的人口增長和基隆及周邊城鎮(zhèn)大量的住宅建設(shè)——意味著，2016年從基隆到墨爾本的通勤者人數(shù)可能會從1.5萬人增加。
Hobart-Launceston
高于平均水平的霍巴特/ Launceston朗塞斯頓的價(jià)格比率、買家興趣的增加和更光明的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景都表明，朗塞斯頓可能在未來一到兩年內(nèi)看到價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲。
塔斯馬尼亞第二大城市朗塞斯頓的房價(jià)增長與霍巴特的房價(jià)增長密切相關(guān)。隨著霍巴特的房價(jià)在過去幾年大幅上漲——自2015年初以來，房價(jià)已上漲逾40%——朗塞斯頓變得相對便宜?；舭吞?/span>/朗塞斯頓的房價(jià)比率有所上升，如今霍巴特的一套普通住宅比朗塞斯頓的一套普通住宅高出40%，而幾年前這一比例僅為20%。
但朗塞斯頓的房價(jià)自2017年以來也強(qiáng)勁上漲，導(dǎo)致房價(jià)比率企穩(wěn)，朗塞斯頓的相對承受能力可能會鼓勵(lì)一些投資者和移民購買朗塞斯頓的房產(chǎn)，而不是霍巴特。
買家對朗塞斯頓的興趣也越來越大。在2018年期間，朗塞斯頓每次上市的瀏覽量都增長了約40%。
朗塞斯頓的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景也在改善。最近，朗塞斯頓的失業(yè)率降至7年多來的最低水平，但仍保持在6.8%的高位。聯(lián)邦、州和地方政府為提振朗塞斯頓經(jīng)濟(jì)，簽署了一項(xiàng)城市協(xié)議，朗塞斯頓是該協(xié)議的對象。
一年一度的MONA-FOMA節(jié)已經(jīng)從霍巴特轉(zhuǎn)移到朗塞斯頓，朗塞斯頓可能會從促進(jìn)霍巴特經(jīng)濟(jì)的“mona效應(yīng)”中受益。澳元走軟應(yīng)會提振塔斯馬尼亞的游客數(shù)量，并使塔斯馬尼亞的出口商品對海外買家來說更便宜，從而繼續(xù)支撐塔斯馬尼亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)。
與本文考慮的其他城市對不同，很少有人在朗塞斯頓和霍巴特之間通勤上班(2016年，從朗塞斯頓到霍巴特的通勤人數(shù)只有275人)。
布里班黃金海岸和布里班陽光海岸
黃金海岸和陽光海岸房價(jià)的溫和上漲與布里斯班過去兩年較慢的房價(jià)漲幅相比，使得布里斯班的房價(jià)相對于沿海城市而言較為便宜。布里斯班/黃金海岸和布里斯班/陽光海岸的房價(jià)比率已經(jīng)下降，目前低于2010-2018年的平均水平，這表明沿海城市的房價(jià)略微高估。
由于昆士蘭較小城市的房價(jià)中值高于布里斯班，因此布里斯班/黃金海岸和布里斯班/陽光海岸的房價(jià)中值低于1，這意味著布里斯班一套典型的住宅價(jià)格比黃金海岸和陽光海岸低10%左右。
昆士蘭東南部是高度互聯(lián)的。2016年，超過3萬人從黃金海岸通勤至澳大利亞最大的城市布里斯班工作，8400人從陽光海岸通勤至布里斯班。
黃金海岸的就業(yè)前景比其他城市要好。黃金海岸的失業(yè)率已從2016年末的5.5%降至2018年底的4.3%，而布里斯班的失業(yè)率則在2018年徘徊在6%左右，陽光海岸的失業(yè)率則在2018年升至6.5%。
房價(jià)比率顯示，2019年黃金海岸和陽光海岸的房價(jià)增速可能會慢于布里斯班。但在2018年下半年，黃金海岸和陽光海岸的單單域名瀏覽量有所上升，黃金海岸的就業(yè)前景看起來更好，表明這兩個(gè)二線城市的房價(jià)還有進(jìn)一步上漲的空間的前景。
二級城市與其最近的首都的表現(xiàn)密切相關(guān)。未來幾年，隨著就業(yè)機(jī)會繼續(xù)集中在澳大利亞的主要城市，二線城市與最近的首府城市之間的聯(lián)系可能會更加緊密。
一些首都城市的房價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)在2019年進(jìn)一步下跌，然后在今年晚些時(shí)候觸底，因此二線城市房價(jià)可能在2019年停滯或下跌，不過朗塞斯頓似乎是個(gè)例外。
Are Australia’s ‘secondary’ cities still a bargain, or have they run their race?
Australia’s capital cities may be coming off the boil, but what of their metropolitan siblings?
此文章出于
<TRENT WILTSHIRE, 18 Feb 2019>
Secondary cities such as Geelong, Newcastle and Launceston have been on a run, proving more affordable options for buyers after prices shot up in the closest major capital city. But with prices in some capitals declining – most notably in Sydney and Melbourne – some secondary cities now don’t look quite as good value as they did a year or two ago.
The outlook for prices in major regional cities Newcastle, Wollongong, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Geelong and Launceston is analysed below.
Secondary cities boomed after major cities became too expensive
When capital city prices become too expensive for first-home buyers and investors, aspiring capital city home buyers often look to nearby regional cities as a cheaper alternative. These secondary cities are often close enough to a major capital that people can commute to the capital city for work.
Price growth in major cities and secondary cities generally track pretty closely together, but sometimes with a delay of around a year. For some cities, the major city in some city-pairs can lead turning points in the price growth of the secondary city.
Sydneysiders consider Newcastle and Wollongong, Melburnians often look to Geelong, and Launceston, Tasmania’s second-largest city, is considered after Hobart. In Queensland, the typical house in Brisbane is cheaper than in the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast, but these coastal cities are both within commuting distance to Brisbane and are obvious alternatives to Queensland’s capital.
Property prices in Wollongong, Newcastle and Geelong began rising a year or two after Sydney and Melbourne property prices began taking off around 2013. Launceston house prices have increased significantly since 2017, a couple of years after Hobart’s price boom started in 2015. While price growth has been more subdued up north, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast house prices have increased by more than those in Brisbane.
What’s in store for secondary cities house prices?
Several indicators are used to predict price growth in secondary cities in the coming years.
The first method is comparing the ratio of the median price in a capital city with the secondary city’s median house price. The higher the capital city/secondary city price ratio, the more expensive the capital is compared to the secondary city (for example, a ratio of 2 indicates a typical house in the capital city is twice as expensive as the secondary city).
If a capital city/secondary city price ratio is below average, then this may indicate the secondary city is overvalued, suggesting the secondary city may see weaker price growth in the near future (and vice versa).
Buyer interest in an area – using changes in the number of views per listing from Domain’s website and apps, a leading indicator of future price growth – is also analysed. The economic outlook and job prospects in secondary cities, including the interconnectedness of the secondary city with the closest capital city, are also considered.
Sydney-Wollongong
While Wollongong’s economy is performing well, its prices are likely to stagnate or fall in the year ahead. The main reason is that the Sydney/Wollongong price ratio has fallen just below the 2010-2018 average and is back close to the level over the 2003-2013 period, where the median house price in Sydney prices was approximately 50 per cent higher than in Wollongong (see graph below). This fall in the price ratio was due to Sydney house prices falling by more than Wollongong house prices over the past two years.
While prices are likely to remain fairly stagnant over the next one to two years, Wollongong’s improving job market and growing links to Sydney should provide support to Wollongong property prices in the medium term.
Wollongong has seen strong jobs growth in the past couple of years, with the unemployment rate for the Wollongong LGA falling from almost 7 per cent in 2016 to 4.5 per cent in 2018.
Wollongong is also a growing commuter town: in 2016, more than 21,000 people commuted from Wollongong to Sydney for work (the second largest regional city to capital city commuting pair, behind the Gold Coast to Brisbane). Wollongong and Illawarra residents may also benefit from the construction of the Badgerys Creek airport, which will be just over an hour’s drive from Wollongong, although construction is not expected to finish until 2026.
Sydney-Newcastle
Newcastle is likely to see weak price growth or modest price falls in the next year or two. The Sydney/Newcastle price ratio has fallen below the 2010-2018 average as prices have grown slowly in Newcastle over the past year, but fell by 10 per cent in Sydney. This indicates Newcastle houses may be becoming overvalued compared to Sydney.
Buyer interest in Newcastle also appears to be waning. Domain’s views-per-listing measure for Newcastle fell by 2 per cent over 2018 as there were fewer buyers or they began looking elsewhere.
Another reason property price growth in Newcastle might be subdued is that there is no clear jobs boom on the horizon in the region. Newcastle’s unemployment rate has hovered around 6 per cent over the past couple of years, which is above Sydney’s unemployment rate of 4 per cent.
Melbourne-Geelong
The Melbourne/Geelong house price ratio fell significantly over 2018 as house prices increased in Geelong and fell in Melbourne. The Melbourne/Geelong price ratio now sits at 1.5, meaning a typical house in Melbourne is 50 per cent more expensive than a typical Geelong house. The ratio is now below the 2010-2018 average.
With Melbourne house prices forecast to continue falling in 2019, Geelong’s relative affordability will decline further, so this may also see prices in Geelong stagnate or fall modestly. The Geelong market is already losing momentum, with house price growth slowing in Geelong over 2018 and Domain’s views-per-listing measure for Geelong falling at the end of 2018.
While the analysis of the Melbourne/Geelong price ratio suggests Geelong prices may fall, there are some promising signs for Geelong’s economy. Some sectors are seeing jobs growth, particularly government jobs, and the city is on the rebound after the end of car manufacturing in 2016. Geelong’s unemployment rate has hovered around 6 per cent since 2016, but a very low unemployment rate in Melbourne of 4 per cent (down from 6 per cent over the past year) may help push Geelong’s unemployment rate lower.
Geelong is increasingly interconnected with Melbourne, which should see the Geelong property market become further tied to the Melbourne market. There are a number of transport infrastructure projects planned, or underway, that should improve travel times between Geelong and Melbourne, including the West Gate tunnel project and planned improvements to the Geelong-Melbourne rail service.
These projects – combined with strong population growth and lots of homebuilding in Geelong and surrounding towns – mean the number of commuters from Geelong to Melbourne will likely increase from the 15,000 commuters in 2016.
Hobart-Launceston
An above-average Hobart/Launceston price ratio, increasing buyer interest and brighter economic prospects all indicate that Launceston may see further price growth over the next one to two years.
Price growth in Launceston, Tasmania’s second-largest city, is closely correlated with price growth in Hobart. As Hobart’s prices boomed over the past few years – house prices have increased by more than 40 per cent since early 2015 – Launceston has become relatively cheaper. The Hobart/Launceston price ratio has increased, with a typical house in Hobart now 40 per cent more expensive than a typical Launceston house, up from a 20 per cent difference a few years ago.
But Launceston prices have also grown strongly since 2017, resulting in the price ratio stabilising, with the relative affordability of Launceston likely to encourage some investors and migrants to buy in Launceston instead of Hobart.
There is also growing buyer interest in Launceston. Views per listing in Launceston increased by about 40 per cent over 2018.
Launceston’s economic prospects are also improving. Unemployment recently fell to its lowest level in more than seven years, although it remains elevated at 6.8 per cent. Launceston is the subject of a City Deal partnership between federal, state and local governments to boost the Launceston economy.
The annual MONA-FOMA festival has been moved from Hobart to Launceston, so Launceston may benefit from some of the “MONA-effect” that has boosted Hobart’s economy. A weaker Australian dollar should continue to support Tasmania’s economy by boosting tourist numbers to Tasmania, as well as making Tasmania’s exports cheaper for overseas buyers.
Unlike other city-pairs considered in this article, few people travel between Launceston and Hobart for work (only 275 people commuted from Launceston to Hobart in 2016).
Brisbane-Gold Coast and Brisbane-Sunshine Coast
Moderate price growth in the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast compared to slower price growth in Brisbane over the past two years has made a house in Brisbane relatively cheap compared to the coastal cities. The Brisbane/Gold Coast and Brisbane/Sunshine Coast price ratios have fallen and now sit below the 2010-2018 average, suggesting the coastal cities are slightly overvalued.
Because the smaller Queensland cities have a higher median price than Brisbane, the Brisbane/Gold Coast and Brisbane/Sunshine Coast price ratios are below 1, meaning a typical Brisbane house is about 10 per cent cheaper than in the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast.
South-east Queensland is highly interconnected. More than 30,000 people commuted from the Gold Coast to Brisbane for work in 2016, the biggest city pair in Australia, while 8400 people commuted from the Sunshine Coast to Brisbane.
Job prospects have been better in the Gold Coast than in the other cities. The Gold Coast’s unemployment rate has fallen from 5.5 per cent in late 2016 to 4.3 per cent at the end of 2018, whereas the unemployment rate hovered around 6 per cent in Brisbane in 2018 and increased to 6.5 per cent in 2018 in the Sunshine Coast.
The price ratios suggest Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast house prices may grow more slowly than Brisbane in 2019. But the Domain views-per-listing measure for the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast increased in the second half of 2018, and job prospects look better in the Gold Coast, suggesting there is scope for further price growth for both secondary cities.
The outlook
Secondary cities are closely tied to the performance of their closest capital. Over the next few years, as jobs continue to concentrate in Australia’s major cities, secondary cities will likely become even more closely linked to their nearest capital city.
The outlook for some capital cities is for further falls in 2019 before prices bottom-out later in the year, so the likelihood is secondary cities will see prices stagnate or fall in 2019, although Launceston looks to be an exception.
